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Forum:2008 Atlantic hurricane season/Gustav
07L.GUSTAV AoI: Southwest of Cape Verde Another ITCZ system, only GFS and UKMET actually develop something significant within 5 days. 2007Astro'sHurricane 16:10, 13 August 2008 (UTC) :Better add CMC and GFDL to that list! 2007Astro'sHurricane 23:17, 13 August 2008 (UTC) ::Half the modls develop what looks like a TD, with the other half a TS or stronger, with GFS the strongest. 2007Astro'sHurricane 15:55, 14 August 2008 (UTC) :::It's drifted south now, could follow and affect the other invests. 2007Astro'sHurricane 14:09, 15 August 2008 (UTC) 94L.INVEST Hmm, it would seem to me that 92 and 94 are lucky numbers for hurricane invests, but 93 not so much. Expected to head north of the Bahamas, could affect the US east coast, could become a hurricane within 5 days. 2007Astro'sHurricane 14:13, 18 August 2008 (UTC) :Might become a hurricane in about a week, but CMC predicts what looks like a cat. 3 in about 5 days, in a track that resembles the 1938 Long Island Express. 2007Astro'sHurricane 14:21, 19 August 2008 (UTC) ::Medium risk and on the danger graphic for NHC. --Patteroast 09:24, 20 August 2008 (UTC) :::Back down to low-risk, but now it has a better chance of entering the Caribbean. 2007Astro'sHurricane 14:45, 20 August 2008 (UTC) ::::A couple model runs showing something interesting happening after it gets to the Caribbean... if this thing's going to do anything, it'll be then. --Patteroast 20:14, 21 August 2008 (UTC) :::::Most models don't predict much more than maybe a TD, but CMC is the outlier, predicting a cat. 3 before it even gets to the warmest water, SHIPS predicts a cat. 1, and HWRF a TS. Models in fair agreement, expected to head into the Caribbean then into the even warmer Atlantic. It might be headed for New York, but it's way too early to tell, but if this does form, then Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic, Haiti, Bahamas, and the North American east coast from Florida to Newfoundland may need to watch this one closely. 2007Astro'sHurricane 22:53, 21 August 2008 (UTC) ::::::Centre re-developed to the south, so it could re-enter the Caribbean near St. Lucia. 2007Astro'sHurricane 14:17, 22 August 2008 (UTC) :::::::OMG, models in agreement on its track, expected to enter the Caribbean, possibly hit Haiti as a cat. 2 (uh-oh), and maybe enter the Gulf. GFDL predicts a cat. 3 in only 3 days in the Caribbean! Its immediate cone may be small but it will enlargen and nobody is safe. 2007Astro'sHurricane 21:07, 22 August 2008 (UTC) ::::::::Where on Earth are you coming up with model agreement on this? GFDL is the only model that does much with this, CMC makes something out of it in the short term but has it weakening toward Cuba, the rest of the models don't seem to be doing much of anything with this at all ... Albireo 21:20, 22 August 2008 (UTC) :::::::::I got the model forecasts from here. There's more agreement on the track than the intensity, however. 2007Astro'sHurricane 00:42, 23 August 2008 (UTC) Back to medium risk and on the danger graphic from NHC. --Patteroast 09:51, 24 August 2008 (UTC) Although most models don't predict too much, GFDL develops a cat. 5 as soon as it enters the gulf and heads it straight for NOLA! 2007Astro'sHurricane 00:08, 25 August 2008 (UTC) :Where are you seeing Category 5 anywhere? I go to that site that you link and all I can tell is that it moves north, deepens, and steers toward Florida. Besides, anything more than three days out isn't exactly reliable. Recent satellite is showing some healthy convection by the way. Harocat 00:40, 25 August 2008 (UTC) ::I think I found what you're talking about, is this where you're getting the models? Harocat 00:46, 25 August 2008 (UTC) :::Jamaica better be paying attention, because most of the guidance takes it their way and only HWFI doesn't give it a name. Of those, only NOGAPS does't make it a hurricane. GFDI makes it a Category 4 in 108 hrs and LGEM makes it a Cat 2 in the same amount of time. Caribbean storms traditionally make me very nervous as there are quite a few of them on the retired names list. -- [[User:SkyFury|''Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 04:22, 25 August 2008 (UTC) ::::Doesn't help that the GDFL shows it going right between the Yucatan Peninsula and Cuba, giving it an unobstructed shot at the Gulf. It will get plenty of warm water along the way as well. We could be seeing a tropical depression by morning.Harocat 05:24, 25 August 2008 (UTC) Assigned high risk by NHC. They say that it could form into a depression at any time and the hurricane hunters will be sent this afternoon.Harocat 11:38, 25 August 2008 (UTC) Tropical Depression Seven It's official. NHC predicts it becoming a tropical storm by tomorrow morning and moving between Cuba and Haiti. It doesn't appear that they're expecting it to develop more anytime soon, but there's a Tropical Storm Warning out for the southern coast of Haiti and the Dominican Republic. Harocat 15:44, 25 August 2008 (UTC) :Wow, it has a well-defined eye, and I expect a TS by 2pm. The error cone, unfortunately, puts all three American cities most vulnerable to hurricanes: New Orleans, Miami, and New York in its possible path. If it's making you very nervous, it should, because much of the US coast is in its possible striking zone. Also, we here in S. Ontario could get the remnants of this storm. Someone on WeatherUnderground noticed that this storm's path is similar to that of Dennis of 2005. Following the low-confidence NHC forecast and model guidance, I predict a cat. 1 landfall near Key West on September 1, then a cat. 3 landfall on Pascagoula, Mississippi as a cat. 3 on the 4th, then a TS landfall near Cape Hatteras on the 8th, then a cat. 2 landfall near New York City on the 10th, then a TD landfall near Kingston, Ontario on the 12th. However, this will probably be off especially towards the end. 2007Astro'sHurricane 16:10, 25 August 2008 (UTC) ::You're predicting a lot of landfalls there... just cos Fay made a lot, doesn't mean those following it will. Also, I'd've thought Houston's more likely to get hit by a hurricane than New York. - Salak 17:21, 25 August 2008 (UTC) ::Is there any rhyme or reason to your "predictions", or are you just tossing colored darts at a map? Also - "''landfall near Kingston, ON"? I assume you mean "remnants pass near Kingston, ON". Albireo 17:29, 25 August 2008 (UTC) :::I have to admit, I got a chuckle out of that. But yeah, he's sounding a bit too excited about his predictions. Harocat 18:46, 25 August 2008 (UTC) :::Just had a look at the aerial photo; that does look like an eye. I'll be very surprised if this isn't Gustav at the next advisory. - Salak 17:41, 25 August 2008 (UTC) Tropical Storm Gustav It's official! Unfortunately the official update will be delayed 30 minutes and yes there is reason to my forecast. 95 kmph winds!! 2007Astro'sHurricane 18:14, 25 August 2008 (UTC) :Well, yeah, even the NHC said it was going to turn into a tropical storm within the day. This isn't a forecasting contest. Anyway...hopefully it gets torn up over Cuba before Florida gets any more dumped on. Harocat 18:50, 25 August 2008 (UTC) ::Hurricane warning for southern Haiti and SW Dominican Republic. The current forecast has it only skimming the coast of Cuba... --Patteroast 19:02, 25 August 2008 (UTC) :::Not liking this forecast track one bit. It would be too easy to get that thing into the Gulf. (EDIT TO ADD: And of course it's going to hit Haiti, which is never good news)--Guillaume Hébert-Jodoin 19:13, 25 August 2008 (UTC) ::::Uh oh. This could be REALLY bad. Believe it or not, Haiti hasn't had a direct hurricane strike since Georges of 1998, and even that was a cat. 1. Most models' tracks are way south of NHC's track, which means that NOLA could be in trouble. Both GFDL and HWRF predict landfall on South Cuba as a cat. 2. Either way, this will not be pretty. 2007Astro'sHurricane 19:37, 25 August 2008 (UTC) :::::Not liking the look of this either... Haiti and Cuba only had Fay about 10 days ago, that may only increase the flooding caused by this... not looking good at the moment. - Salak 20:17, 25 August 2008 (UTC) ::::::Updated forecast shows it reaching Cat. 1 by tomorrow and the extended forecast calls for it to go directly over Cuba. However, even the forecasters are saying the day 4 and 5 outlooks are a bit unclear, though from what the models are showing it could turn left quickly and smack Jamaica. Right now the track seems to depend on the development of a ridge in the southeast US. Harocat 21:10, 25 August 2008 (UTC) :::::::Sustained winds of 70mph; nearly a hurricane now. - Salak 03:27, 26 August 2008 (UTC) Hurricane Gustav According to NHC, hurricane hunters found 80 mph winds... and the last forecast track had it edging south of Cuba, taking a path with minimal time over land... this doesn't look good. --Patteroast 07:36, 26 August 2008 (UTC) :That didn't take long at all. Bad news for Haiti. Jake52 :07:36, 26 August 2008 (UTC) ::Wow... not liking model runs, either. Latest GFDL had a category 5 landfall on the W tip of Cuba before heading into the Gulf with 158 knot winds, and the latest HWRF has a strong cat 4 heading into the Gulf after skimming past Cuba. --Patteroast 07:42, 26 August 2008 (UTC) From discussion: "THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS INCREASED AND NOW CALLS FOR GUSTAV TO BE A MAJOR HURRICANE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT BOTH THE GFDL/HWRF FORECAST SHOW AN EVEN STRONGER HURRICANE. MOST INDICATIONS ARE THAT GUSTAV WILL BE AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IN A FEW DAYS." - not good. Isfisk 09:05, 26 August 2008 (UTC) :If Gustav enters the Gulf it could steel the thunder next week from McCain. Isfisk 11:42, 26 August 2008 (UTC) ::Or it might actually give the candidates something to do besides bash each other. The aftermath of Gustav has the potential to be a PR goldmine. Hopefully they focus on helping with cleanup rather than making themselves look good, but who am I kidding. Harocat 13:30, 26 August 2008 (UTC) :::Anyone see the latest GFDL run? It's downright chilling. Albireo 13:52, 26 August 2008 (UTC) ::::The one that has this touching Category 5 in the gulf before a direct hit as a Category 4 on New Orleans? Eek... - Salak 16:13, 26 August 2008 (UTC) :::Yup, looks like it's going to explode fairly soon, and a major hurricane by Friday. Harocat 15:13, 26 August 2008 (UTC) ::::There's still uncertainty, but either way this will not be good for oil prices. I predict a cat. 4 landfall in central Louisiana. This might be innacurate but it might also might be an underestimte, but look at this map of an approximation of the storm surge associated with such a storm O_Ohttp://flood.firetree.net/?ll=29.6594,-91.2469&z=9&m=4. 2007Astro'sHurricane 22:43, 26 August 2008 (UTC) :::::The latest GFDL run is just creepy: 170 mph+ winds, direct cat. 4 landfall on Houston with TS winds on NOLA. 2007Astro'sHurricane 00:46, 27 August 2008 (UTC) ::::::Either way, this thing may well be pretty bad. We're looking almost a week ahead here, I think it's safe to say the Gulf Coast needs to keep an eye on this, and then a case of wait and see, at least until it gets half way along Cuba so we have a slightly better picture? - Salak 01:31, 27 August 2008 (UTC) :::::::I don't like this at all. I'm not easily intimidated by young storms but if this storm doesn't establish a long standing relationship with Cuba, things could get very ugly by Labor Day weekend. I've analyzed every season back to 1871 at some point in the last four years and I'll tell you a major hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico almost never has a happy ending. The upper level environment is not exactly providing me much comfort either. Six of the 11 models on Colorado State's map make it a major hurricane. GFDI and GFNI make it 150 mph Category 4 by 84 hrs (bad) and 108 hrs (worse), respectively. Bottom line: there's a relatively strong possibility that this could suck. -- [[User:SkyFury|''Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 06:17, 27 August 2008 (UTC) ::::::::GFDL now hints on a direct hit for the Mississippi delta. -- 09:56, 27 August 2008 (UTC) Tropical Storm Gustav (Second time) Haiti cut Gustav up a bit it seems. Forecast to restrengthen in 24 hours though. - Salak 13:53, 27 August 2008 (UTC) :I'll take any good news at this point. Anyone notice the track keeps shifting east, more toward...(*gulp*) me? Chance for shear late in the forecast period but there's no way to know how the storm will be affected by it. The lack of knowledge is just killing me right now. -- [[User:SkyFury|Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 16:29, 27 August 2008 (UTC) ::This storm could indeed make history (or erase it). NHC predicts a direct cat. 3 landfall near New Orleans, which could be a re-Katrina. I'd think about packing up and leaving if I lived around the area. Land interaction with Havanna could weaken it a bit, and it's not expected to flood MR-GO as much. GFDL and HWRF both predict a cat. 5, CMC still insisting on the south Texas track. GFDL predicts a cat. 4 landfall on central Louisiana (bad), and HWRF predicts a cat. 3 landfall on central Mississippi (just as bad). Only three people have been reported dead in Haiti, which could be good news because it could have been worse. I'd predicted retirement for Gustav back in July, but not in the exact way I'd expected. If you live anywhere near the Lake Pontchartrain area, you should: stock up on emergency supplies. Pray. Get ready-to-eat food (not Maple Leaf meat) and bottled water. Pray. Fill up on fuel ASAP. Pray. Be ready to evacuate if nessecary. Pray. Monitor the NHC forecasts. Pray. Leave early before a mandatory evacuation is declared if the storm stays on its predicted track. Pray. 2007Astro'sHurricane 16:59, 27 August 2008 (UTC) :::Normally I might dismiss the above as being melodramatic hand-wringing, but the models simply do not look good. With two of them - and the NHC forecast - pointing at a major hurricane landfall on the gulf coast, I'd say it is not unwarranted for everyone from Houston to Pensacola to be keeping a very close watch on Gustav and be prepared to get outta Dodge. Albireo 17:18, 27 August 2008 (UTC) ::::There's no reason to panic. Yet. If the track still looks the same on Friday morning, *then* you can panic (and if at all possible, find some place to evacuate to). But that's friday morning.--Guillaume Hébert-Jodoin 18:05, 27 August 2008 (UTC) :::::Oh, no, no reason to panic - but every reason for residents on the Gulf Coast to pay attention and not wait till the last moment, in case this does get ugly. Albireo 18:49, 27 August 2008 (UTC) ::::::GFDL still predicting cat. 5, but it's the only one now. The best-case senario I think is if it heads over Cuba and Florida and never strengthens to a hurricane but then it would still dump a lot of flood. 2007Astro'sHurricane 22:16, 27 August 2008 (UTC) ::::::Coincidentally, Friday is the 3rd anniversary of Katrina and by then it'll be apparent what this storm will do. Half of all models predict major hurricane near NOLA. 2007Astro'sHurricane 22:21, 27 August 2008 (UTC) :::::::It's not gonna be a Cat. 5 but the way this is going, it could be a longer weekend than I thought. I have to go home tomorrow anyway for a doctor's appointment and as Gus is likely to make landfall on the Gulf Coast sometime Tuesday (at whatever Category it ends up being), I may be staying longer. This is the worst part of an impending storm for a hurricane forecaster because at this point, there's no tellin' what it'll do. But it's comin' and is certainly gonna run into something. Where and as what we don't know. -- [[User:SkyFury|Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 23:30, 27 August 2008 (UTC) About to pass Jamaica to the SOUTH, intensity forecasts have just been raised back to 115mph in the Gulf, currently 70mph sustained winds. Back to a Hurricane today. - Salak 13:10, 28 August 2008 (UTC) :NHC forecasts have switched back to landfall on Central Louisiana, but CMC predicts a landfall on Florida (and stalls it there :S), while GFDL predeicts a cat. 3 landfall near Mobile. Interactiion with Hannah is about to really complicate things as it could make this storm stay in the Gulf longer. 2007Astro'sHurricane 14:08, 28 August 2008 (UTC) ::"IT WOULD BE NO SURPRISE IF RAPID INTENSIFICATION OCCURRED AND GUSTAV BECAME A CATEGORY 4 OR 5 HURRICANE BY 72 HR." That sucks. No, bad Gustav, behave. I'm home for the Labor Day weekend which could be longer if the track shifts back east. Before I left Mobile, I found a notice taped to my door by Housing advising me to secure my belongings and on how to get emergency info. That brought it home. -- [[User:SkyFury|Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 04:57, 29 August 2008 (UTC) :::I doubt Hanna will have much of an affect on Gustav. They're very far apart. However, Gustav could have an affect on Hanna as it is currently and will remain in the short-term the superior system. Also, Gustav just rapidly expanded in size. Hopefully once it gets over the Gulf Stream and intensifies and starts undergoing those ERCs it won't grow to be too large...Bob rulz 12:53, 29 August 2008 (UTC) ::::Update: 78 deaths being blamed on Gustav; 8 in the Dominican Republic, 59 in Haiti (7 still missing), and up to 11 in Jamaica. That's more than Dean from last year. 2007Astro'sHurricane 16:58, 29 August 2008 (UTC) :::::Fasten your seatbelts, Gus looks primed to strengthen significantly. Cloud tops have cooled, pressure and wind shear are low, water is warm and I see what appears to be a banding eye beginning to form. We're about to find out how much Gustav really likes the infamous northwestern Caribbean. -- [[User:SkyFury|Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 17:55, 29 August 2008 (UTC) Hurricane Gustav (again) 15:15 EDT: NHC declares Gustav a hurricane again. -- 19:27, 29 August 2008 (UTC) : Looks amazing... I feel it could become a cat5 even before it exits the Caribbean. :/ I mean if it can survive all that land THIS well. -Winter123 20:44, 29 August 2008 (UTC) :: Not sure about that, but a major hurricane isn't out of the question, by any means. Whether it strengthens further to a Cat 4 or 5 in the Gulf; well that's another matter. - Salak 20:52, 29 August 2008 (UTC) :::If you extend the 5-day of the storm's center track from the previous advisories, then it hasn't the Louisiana-Mississippi area since its formation. If it goes far enough west, however, then it might intensify rapidly, expand, then move north and break through part of the ridge due to the Gulf loop. 2007Astro'sHurricane 21:25, 29 August 2008 (UTC) ::::Now forecast to become a Cat. 4 but at this point, the best we can say is "strong". There are a lot of variables going into this intensity forecast but what I found rather chilling was the assertiveness with which Jack Beven (who has a PhD and is as knowledgable as anyone on tropical cyclones) said, "Gustav is expected to make landfall as a major hurricane." I have never heard NHC make such an absolute statement like that at this point in the storm's life. Not with Ivan, not with Katrina, not with Rita. That scares me. -- [[User:SkyFury|Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 04:27, 30 August 2008 (UTC) Major Hurricane Gustav Houston, we have a problem. Jake52 10:57, 30 August 2008 (UTC) :Um... Yikes? Certainly not what the Gulf coast want to hear, I expect. - Salak 14:26, 30 August 2008 (UTC) ::Uh-oh. Brace yourselves, here it comes. The models are extremely agreed upon on making a landfall on Vermillion Bay, Louisiana. Both GFDL and HWRF have been fed data on the Gulf loop current, and GFDL takes it to a cat. 5. HWRF only takes it to a cat. 4, but that's because it starts it off as a cat. 2. A really scary thing is, both HWRF and UKMET take it SOUTH after it hits Louisiana and Texas, which is really scary because then it could interact with Hanna and either system can hit absolutely ANYWHERE. So, I'm saying that Gustav could easily hit both New Orleans AND Houston with full force. Remember, the models do VERY poorly with high pressure stalling scenarios and hurricane-hurricane interactions. Oh great, every time we have perfectly clear weather in Southern Ontario, which has been rare all summer, we get blamed on massive hurricane destruction in the US. GFDL predicts a cat. 3 landfall on Louisiana having just weakened from a cat. 5, while HWRF only predicts a cat. 1 landfall, but like I said it curves it back into the Gulf. I have a feeling the tropics are about to get VERY dangerous and complicated in the next few days. Not to mention I have a friend who visited Varadero just two weeks ago, and now that area has experienced Fay, is under a hurricane warning because of Gustav, and might be hit by Hanna also. This storm is rather large: rainbands exdend 700 km and are affecting south Florida (oh great, MORE rain for south Florida?!). When it hits Louisiana, rainbands could easily extend from west of Houston to much of the Florida Panhandle. Be careful wherever you are, this could get serious. 2007Astro'sHurricane 14:39, 30 August 2008 (UTC) :::Goddamnit Gus, what'd you have to go and do that for? This looks as bad as we thought it was going to be if not worse. I think it's landfall intensity will be determined by how strong it gets and the timing of eyewall replacement cycles. Katrina moved inland in the middle of an eyewall cycle, which was 100% dumb luck, and it was still one of the worst hurricane disasters in US history. The levees of New Orleans are still under reconstruction and are in worse a state now than they were in 2005. If this thing makes landfall as a major hurricane anywhere between Lake Charles and Bay St. Louis, New Orleans is in serious trouble. At least Gus won't likely leave much warm water for Hanna when she gets here. -- [[User:SkyFury|Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 17:26, 30 August 2008 (UTC) ::::"DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT GUSTAV HAS CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN AND NOW HAS MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR 145 MPH...230 KM/HR WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THIS MAKES GUSTAV AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. A SPECIAL ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED AT ABOUT 200 PM EDT TO MODIFY THE INITIAL AND FORECAST INTENSITIES. THE SPECIAL PUBLIC ADVISORY WILL TAKE THE PLACE OF THE INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY PREVIOUSLY SCHEDULED FOR THAT TIME." - 1:20pm EDT Update. Maybe I was wrong, this could get to Cat 5 before it hits Cuba... Eeeek!!! - Salak 17:28, 30 August 2008 (UTC) It's gets even worse. MUCH worse. Gustav is now a dangerous cat. 4, with winds of 230 km/h. I reckon it will be a cat. 5 shortly after it crosses Cuba, because the hurricane is shifting east of its predicted track and is moving NNW. A special full advisory will be issued at 2pm. This is bad, because it will be stronger when it makes landfall, hit closer to New Orleans, and hit it sooner! I think it will make landfall sometime around 2pm Monday, which is only 48 hours from now. Emergency planners are expecting a landfall Tuesday morning. Uh-oh. Technicly at this rate the southeast tip of the Mississippi should already be on a hurricane watch. Even worse, I think its current track would take its worst storm surge into the Mississippi River-Gulf Outlet canal, which would flood much of St. Bernard Parish into NOLA because it would funnel all that water into possibly to as much as 25 feet. Just a year ago, we would have all panicked if a single model run took a major hurricane toward NOLA, and just a month ago none of you believed me that many more re-Katrinas were coming. Now we can only hope for the best. However, there is good news. New Orleans is at half its population, so a full evacuation would take about 60 hours. Since voluntary evacuations have begun, it would take less than 48 hours to evacuate the city. However, they need to start mandatory evacuations NOW, because Gustav is set to make landfall in 48 hours! Let's wait for that special advisory. 2007Astro'sHurricane 17:42, 30 August 2008 (UTC) :For once, I agree. There is nothing standing in Gustav's way right now. It hasn't even hit the Loop Current yet. -- [[User:SkyFury|Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 17:51, 30 August 2008 (UTC) ::Many more, no... but it only takes one. - Salak 17:56, 30 August 2008 (UTC) :::*gulp* 2pm advisory ups the wind figures to 145mph, says a Cat 5 is possible just before or after Cuban landfall... Goes from bad to worse. - Salak 18:14, 30 August 2008 (UTC) ::::Expected to make a weak cat. 4 landfall near Grand Isle, LA (not MR-GO, sorry I mixed that up). here is what a 16-ft storm surge might do to the area (it's actually mesant for sea level rise, so it might not be accurate for storm surge). At one point, Gustav will likely be exactly where Katrina was more than 3 years ago, about 50 km south of the Mississippi delta, and of similar size and strength, and this will likely be the worst storm to hit NOLA since Katrina, because remember even Rita was strong enough to break the levees. 2007Astro'sHurricane 18:47, 30 August 2008 (UTC) :::::It all depends on eyewall cycles and how much shear increases throughout the forecast period. That forecast advisory sent a chill up my spine. NHC seems to be really considering the possibility that Gustav could make landfall as a Category 4. Like I said before, New Orleans is very vulnerable right now. It won't take much to cause devastating consequences for the city. I hope people in the path of this thing realize how serious this is. -- [[User:SkyFury|Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 18:52, 30 August 2008 (UTC) ::::::Apparently NOLA isn't the only one in danger because Cuba has apparently never before recorded a cat. 5 landfall! Dennis was the last storm to make cat. 4 landfall and it killed 16 people. The Batabano Gulf isn't very warm but it still has time to strengthen especially considering Cuba at that point is only 60 km wide but luckily there aren't too many towns on the south coast of Cuba in that area. 2007Astro'sHurricane 19:08, 30 August 2008 (UTC) Highly unconfirmed, but some media sources indicate NHC has informed FEMA and others Gustav would be up to 5 with the next advisory. We'll see. --Guillaume Hébert-Jodoin 20:30, 30 August 2008 (UTC) :Look at the IR. Havana's getting ravaged. God help those people. -- [[User:SkyFury|Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 21:35, 30 August 2008 (UTC) ::Canadian media put this as a cat. 5, but NHC still has it as a strong cat. 4. Now espected to make landfall in Louisiana south of Houma as a medium-strength cat. 4. The good news is that Cuba has a good civil defense system. A hurricane watch extends from Houston to Florida. Just 5mph from cat. 5 and it has yet to clear the water before it makes landfall on the mainland. Also this storm surge looks bad. 2007Astro'sHurricane 21:50, 30 August 2008 (UTC) :::The latest advisory said Cuba could be getting a storm surge of around 20 feet. I don't care how good your civil defense system is, a surge that huge can devestate entire cities. Gustav is reminding me of Felix almost a year ago and you saw how well that turned out. That eye and eyewall are very well defined. -- [[User:SkyFury|Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 22:43, 30 August 2008 (UTC) ::::This is a rough idea of such a surge, but remember hundreds of thousands have been evacuated, and it already made landfall. 2007Astro'sHurricane 00:27, 31 August 2008 (UTC) :::::Gustav looks significantly weaker now. The once-impressive eye has entirely disappeared on the VIS and IR imagery. It would not surprise me in the least if it's down to Cat. 3 the 11pm advisory. -- [[User:SkyFury|Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 02:09, 31 August 2008 (UTC) Meh, not so much in actuality. The storm was going to lose its eye in all probability - it looks bad, but it's not bad. The eye is becoming much more well defined as we speak. Squarethecircle 02:58, 31 August 2008 (UTC) (guess who) :Down to a cat. 3. Mandatory evacuation in effect for New Orleans. 2007Astro'sHurricane 13:49, 31 August 2008 (UTC) ::Landfall forecast at Grand Isle tomorrow afternoon with winds somewhere between 105 and 115 knots (120-130 mph). That is too close to New Orleans for my taste. I'm glad mayor Nagin finally used sterner language this time: If you don't leave, don't expect any help from us. He closed the Superdome and the Convention Center and commissioned everything with wheels to get people out of that goddamn city. We should consider ourselves very lucky this storm did not enjoy its Cuban vacation one bit. Oh, and my school is under a hurricane warning but we're still having class Tuesday, isn't that wonderful. -- [[User:SkyFury|Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 18:08, 31 August 2008 (UTC) :::Here comes the re-intensification right now... Squarethecircle 23:28, 31 August 2008 (UTC) ::::Yeah, it looks like it's getting better organized but the winds aren't exactly Johnny on the Spot, especially with a storm this big. -- [[User:SkyFury|Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 00:11, 1 September 2008 (UTC) :::::Is that a pinhole eye? http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/vis-l.jpg -- [[User:SkyFury|Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 00:29, 1 September 2008 (UTC) Very grainy, looks like a cloud top next to a small eye indentation. Best track, BTW, is 105. Recon obs say around 950 right now. And dropping. Squarethecircle 00:41, 1 September 2008 (UTC) :I'm really surprised it wasn't bumped up at the 11pm advisory. NHC seems to think the information is conflicting; they're getting both evidence of strengthening and evidence of declining organization. I'll be a little surprised if it doesn't strengthen a bit before landfall but not shocked. Ivan, Katrina and Rita were all forecast to be stronger at landfall than they were. Then again, Charley and Wilma were forecast to be weaker at landfall. So a lot of strange things can happen with landfalling systems. Every storm reacts to its environment differently. All forecasters try to do is analyze that environment and try to determine the most likely scenario. -- [[User:SkyFury|Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 03:55, 1 September 2008 (UTC) ::It stayed a cat. 3 throught the Gulf, which is good news. It's about to come ashore, visible on NOLA radar, and surge in places has reached 10 feet. The radar makes it look like a rather small storm, and the NOLA bridgecam makes it look stormy but not too bad. 2007Astro'sHurricane 13:28, 1 September 2008 (UTC) Hurricane Gustav (third time); Post-landfall Made landfall as a cat. 2, could bring heavy rain in the next few days. 2007Astro'sHurricane 16:11, 1 September 2008 (UTC) :There NHC goes again. Gustav was for all intents and purposes a major hurricane at landfall. NHC wants to wait until every last inch of the eye is onshore and it really irritates me, I don't understand why they nitpick like that. They did the same thing with Katrina. That said, Gustav doesn't look like it's going to be as bad as we originally thought it might be. -- [[User:SkyFury|Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury'']] 17:27, 1 September 2008 (UTC) Tropical Depression Gustav It's over land, but it still has an extremely impressive structure, and heavy rains are falling and 8 people were killed from Gustav in the United States directly I think. 2007Astro'sHurricane 20:10, 2 September 2008 (UTC) :And now it's over. TD Gustav has become a remnant low, still in the same general area, and we're finally back down to three named systems, which is plenty enough.--Guillaume Hébert-Jodoin 16:31, 4 September 2008 (UTC) ::The remnant low is still expected to bring us a lot of rain tomorrow. 2007Astro'sHurricane 21:52, 4 September 2008 (UTC) :::The remnants have brought us some light rain, sustained winds up to 30 kph (20 mph), and occasional gusts up to 60 kph (35 mph). 2007Astro'sHurricane 20:14, 5 September 2008 (UTC)